The recent legal drama between the Grayscale vs. U.S. Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) reignited the spot Bitcoin ETF buzz. Following Grayscale’s victory against the regulator, several speculations have awakened.
According to crypto analyst Crypto Rover, a spot Bitcoin ETF will channel billions of dollars into the market since it offers impressive tax advantages.
Rover stated that buying Bitcoin spot ETFs could become more appealing, especially for pension funds. Also, he believes several institutions await regulatory finality in the ongoing case with the SEC.
Crypto Rover Believes In Bitcoin Spot ETF and Its Potentials
For context, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are pools of Bitcoin-affiliated assets offered on crypto exchanges by brokerages for trading as ETFs. Spot BTC ETFs closely track Bitcoin’d spot price.
Analyst Crypto Rover believes that Bitcoin spot ETFs could influence Bitcoin’s price positively and lead to an inflow of billions of dollars to the crypto market.
Also, Crypto Rover is extremely bullish on BTC based on several factors he believes will likely affect its price.
10 #Bitcoin Events that have not been priced in yet:
1. BlackRock has a significant equity stake in Bitcoin mining and Bitcoin-related companies.
2. Multiple applications for Spot Bitcoin ETFs will inevitably be accepted.
3. A Spot Bitcoin ETF in Europe has just gone live.…
— Crypto Rover (@rovercrc) September 4, 2023
These factors include multiple applications for spot Bitcoin ETFs, Hong Kong’s crypto compliance, the upcoming halving, etc.Other factor is the SEC’s fading battle against crypto and the expected decline in interest rates by 2024.
Reacting to Crypto Rover’s Tweet, Bitcoin Therapist noted that a trillion will flow into a spot Bitcoin ETF once approved. He stated that the difference between Gold and BTC is that the supply can be audited, and the system is honest.
Another Twitter user, Mark, believes the ETF approval will impact the general market more than Gold did. Also, he noted that the Gold ETF approval in 2004 led to a threefold spike in its value over seven years. Similarly, he forecasts a six-fold surge for BTC if the ETF is approved.
#Bitcoin ETF approval will have a bigger market impact than gold's did. The market craves Bitcoin but lacks trust. Gold's value rose 3x post US ETF approval in '04 over 7yrs. I foresee a 6x BTC price surge. 🚀✨
— Mark T 🚀✨ (@MarkTcrypto) September 3, 2023
Grascale’s Victory and The Possible Outcomes of Bitcoin ETF Launch
Blockchain Association Chief Policy Officer Jake Chervinsky, in an August 29 tweet, said Grayscale’s victory over the U.S. SEC is embarrassing.
Furthermore, he said the District Court rejected the SEC’s stance that Grayscale’s ETF proposal was not designed to prevent fraud or manipulative practices.
According to Chervinsky, the SEC has spent a full decade denying spot Bitcoin ETF approvals, but the era of denial is over.
However, he underlined that the court did not order the SEC to approve the Grayscale ETF proposal but labeled the SEC’s analysis of the ETF proposal as wrong, calling for another review. Chervinsky proposed several outcomes. Firstly, the SEC could pick another reason to deny the Grayscale proposal and force a long legal battle.
Given the SEC’s leadership’s hostility towards crypto, this remains a realistic scenario. However, he said the SEC could shift from their anti-ETF position, citing its respect for the rule of law.
5/ But another theory is that the SEC will take the DC Circuit's decision as a (semi-)graceful exit from their anti-ETF position.
I'm in this camp. It's the right move.
"We disagree, but we're following the rule of law" is a convenient excuse to back out of a losing battle.
— Jake Chervinsky (@jchervinsky) August 29, 2023
Chervinsky believes this is the best option that gives the SEC an excuse to back out of a lost cause. Also, he believes the SEC will be under political pressure to approve Bitcoin ETFs since all traditional finance seems ready for a Bitcoin ETF.
Finally, Chervinsky said he was confident that a Bitcoin ETF would be created sooner rather than later. But it is ultimately up to the SEC to make the process easier or more painful.
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Nick Dunn
Crypto Journalist
